The
future implementation of the ECE
project envisages the establishment
of pilot demonstration projects in a
few selected climate-sensitive zones
in the target countries. The session
was devoted to discussing issues
related to establishing pilot
demonstration projects in light of
the Indonesian experience.
Presentation Highlights
Iwan
Gunawan gave a presentation on the
East Java Pilot Demonstration
Project, which focused on
identifying a framework for
operationalizing ECE climate
forecasts. The objectives of the
project were to:
-
Establish an institutional
arrangement between upstream
climate forecast researchers,
local weather forecast
specialists, national
decision-makers, and local
end-users of various sectors.
-
Formulate a natural resources
inventory and establish
methodologies for assessing
climate impacts with or without
using climate forecast
information.
-
Replicate the practices to other
sites.
The
project area covers five districts
and three municipalities inhabited
by 13.7 million people. The project
has been designed for "downstream
application" of longer range models
to ensure that management decisions
are accurate. For instance, rice
crop demand modelling can estimate
water demand based on the growing
stages of rice, so that managers can
make proper decisions.
The
case study focused on a methodology
trial for numerous specific
applications, and the development of
an institutional framework for
sustainability, thus minimizing
resources needed from outside the
region.
In the
perceived institutional framework,
the ECE research network serves as a
bridge between BMG and the
Department of Agriculture, the
latter of which communicates
directly with farmers. There is a
need to share this experience of an
optimal institutional framework. In
terms of current technical progress,
by using the data, the team has been
able to show the differences between
ENSO and non-ENSO years, so that
watershed managers can see what will
happen to water supply and
agriculture, for example, during
certain ECEs.
The
tools can be used for
decision-making at local level, and
integrated into one system (a
website) so that users just have to
go to one place. For watershed
management systems, scenarios can be
input to show management the likely
impact in terms of flooding; if you
put the upstream end in the climate
models, you can have more knowledge
downstream.
What
does the user need from an ECE
forecast? Present knowledge is
limited and we are constantly
gaining insights from research so
that we can increase the available
knowledge in the future. We can
discuss the anomalies in terms that
people can understand, but there is
still a need to be able to show the
anomalies by region.
As a
follow-up agenda, there is a need
for a climate information system,
ENSO forecasting at watershed scale
and integrated water management
decision support systems. Questions
remain as to how such pilot projects
can be "franchised" so that it
becomes a global approach.
Discussion Points
The
East Java Project provided a
framework that linked climate
forecasters with communities of
users and decision-makers. From this
project and from othersŲ
experiences, it has been observed
that users need information
presented in an understandable
format. For example, users want to
see the patterns of anomaly, to
identify likely impacts, and to hear
levels of confidence expressed
understandably.
In the
Philippines, pilot projects have
already been developed but they need
better documentation. The pilot
demonstration project should cover
smaller, manageable areas to ensure
focused attention and to gain deeper
insights. The details of these
projects will be important to record
as the lessons learned should be
shared and used to develop
additional small-scale projects
linking climate impacts with the
communities who can use the
information.
From a
social science perspective,
institutional constraints may be
more problematic in the ability to
adapt frameworks developed in the
pilot projects. The mechanisms in
each country for dealing with the
impacts of extreme climate events
and forecast information are
different, and therefore, may not be
amenable to the framework presented
from the Indonesian experience.
Dealing with the length of events
and the lead-time needed to develop
actions and responses to the event
is difficult. Within the scope of
the project, the lead-time was
considered; however, in the initial
phases of an event, it may not be
known immediately how long prolonged
events will be. Decisions must be
made instantaneously, and these do
not necessarily deal appropriately
with the event length. Therefore, it
is important to document and record
impacts, and try to apply lessons
learned with flexibility for changes
and differences experienced in
events of varying time lengths.
Recommendations
The
participants recognized the
importance of developing pilot
projects that ascertain the
decision-making structure and
institutional support for using
climate information within user
communities. They recommended
several actions to deal with current
uncertainties in applying forecast
information to the needs of user
communities.
-
Develop institutional monitoring
and feedback arrangements to
capture changes over time during
the course of pilot project
implementation to share the
experiences of the
implementation process. Detailed
documentation of experiences of
pilot demonstration projects
would be useful for exploring
replication options elsewhere.
-
Within replication plans, take
into account the climatic
specificities, the uniqueness of
natural resource management
profiles and the peculiarities
of socio-economic conditions and
policy environments of
successful or failed
demonstration projects.
-
Develop a regional information
system to report continuously on
the progress of pilot
demonstration project
implementation.
-
Organize an integrated decision
support system.
-
Develop a mechanism to look at
changes over time.
-
Integrate climate forecasts into
watershed models, as methods
become available.
-
Maintain the momentum and
interest in the pilot projects
in order to franchise them. The
development of concrete useable
products will help market the
pilot project.
-
Translate information into
understandable impact scenarios.
Since there are problems with
data, such as gaps in
information, this will help
improve the understanding of the
utility of the models.
-
Document and show links between
climate and water resource
management communities. It would
be worthwhile to develop a
similar framework among
countries.
-
Develop an international
approach to compare similar
types of projects.
