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ECE Phase
I
PEER-REVIEW MEETING
5-6 October 2000
Bangkok, Thailand
Experiences and Opportunities from
Regional and International Initiatives
A
number of initiatives have been
undertaken in various parts of the
world in applying climate forecast
information for decision-making
purposes. This session was devoted
to sharing experiences of applying
climate forecast information and
exploring possibilities for
institutional networking to
establish a mechanism that ensures
continuous interaction for exchange
of data, research findings and
experiences
Presentation Highlights
Michael Glantz raised a number of
challenges and opportunities in
"retailing" climate forecast
information to local users.
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Challenges
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Opportunities
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Forecast reliability
Lack of common definitions
of El Nino and La Nina
affect identification of
onset
In downscaling forecasts to
local users, we need to talk
of probabilities; the public
has difficulty with
probabilities expressed
statistically
ECE forecasts may require
forecasting impacts that are
not yet visible to
decision-makers
Lack of translators to
convert science into common
language
Poor perception of forecasts
and forecasters with regard
to forecast value
Lack of realistic error bars
associated with a forecast
Provided information is
appropriate for local user
needs
Insufficient numbers of
trained personnel
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Since the 1997-98 El Nino
and the following La Nina,
they are not treated in the
same way
Educate and train about
climate impacts and not just
climate science, now that we
have their attention
Educate the media at various
levels of interest:
intermittent and heavy
science information
Teach government and
policy-makers about the
usefulness of climate
information in
decision-making |
Cheryl
Anderson presented the experiences
of the Pacific ENSO Applications
Center (PEAC) in applying climate
forecast information to minimize
negative consequences in the Pacific
Islands. In August 1994, PEAC was
established as a pilot project to
provide ENSO forecasts and
information products to the
US-affiliated Pacific Islands, in
part because the spatial resolution
of large-scale models widely used by
researchers in the USA did not meet
people's needs. PEAC directed its
research efforts at the development
of canonical correlation analysis (CCA)
models to forecast rainfall on
specific islands using historical
rainfall data. PEAC published simple
guides that describe rainfall and
tropical cyclone activities expected
under normal, El Nino and La Nina
conditions. Throughout 1994 and
1995, a series of workshops, focus
group meetings and presentations at
regional meetings and to various
organizations and agencies, and
local briefings on ENSO, were
conducted. From these activities,
PEAC identified the concerns of
participants on potential impacts of
El Niœo and La Niœa events and
elicited information about the
specific kinds of ENSO forecast
information needed.
PEAC's
pre-1997 preparatory efforts used
ENSO forecast information during
1997-98 to downscale the forecast
for local use as well as to educate
decision-makers and end-users to
prepare for and undertake proactive
measures. The efforts were useful in
assessing ENSO impacts on Pacific
islands during 1997-98 as well as
enabling local institutions to
undertake mitigation measures.
Generalized forecasts of ENSO events
are not sufficient for
decision-makers outside
meteorological services. Coupled
models used to forecast ENSO events
must be supplemented by a clear
understanding of how those events
affect rainfall and storm patterns.
The experience of PEAC has proven
that the "end-to-end" concept is not
only feasible, but can actually be
used to reduce the suffering and
cost of extreme climate events
associated with the ENSO cycle.
Reid
Basher presented the efforts of
International Research Institute for
Climate Prediction (IRI) in
operationalizing end-to-end climate
research and application programs in
various parts of the world. The
elements of the IRI include:
Applications System
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Climate monitoring and
information dissemination to
distribute IRI forecast products
and support their use worldwide;
provide a link with national
meteorological and hydrological
services responsible for
operational forecasting in
affected regions; and maintain
an effective mechanism for user
feedback on the quality and
usefulness of IRI products.
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Targeted applications research
and demonstration projects to
provide insights into the
regional consequences of
seasonal-to-inter-annual climate
variability, the vulnerability
of communities and economic
sectors, and the value of and
barriers to the use of new
forecasting information to
support decision-making.
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Training to expand the
international cadre of
individuals skilled in the use
and application of emerging
forecasting techniques and
scientific insights.
Predictions System
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State-of-the-art experimental
prediction which provides for
the production of global-scale
forecasts of critical parameters
such as temperature and
precipitation, and the use of
emerging "downscaling"
techniques to transform those
global forecasts into regional
predictions useful for
agriculture, water resources
management and other practical
applications.
In
implementing its programs, IRI is
actively engaged with networks of
project-oriented partners in climate
modelling, research and applications
around the world.
Michael Glantz shared a vision of
the establishment of a Climate
Affairs Program. He mentioned that
as climate anomalies are becoming
more frequent, costly and deadly,
and global warming is also looming
in the 21st century, climate issues
have become important to individuals
and society. A comprehensive Climate
Affairs Program would educate the
public about the value of knowing
how climate directly and indirectly
affects human activities in all
sectors of society. The program
would encourage education and
training in climate affairs. The
components of the program could
include climate ethics
(intergenerational equity,
environmental justice, discounting
the future, "polluter pays"
principle, precautionary principle),
climate policy and law (domestic and
international issues relating to air
pollution, acid rain, ozone
depletion and global warming) and
climate impacts (on ecosystems and
society, human impacts on climate,
methods of assessment) and climate
science.
Eileen
Shea presented a futuristic view of
establishing a Pacific Climate
Information System with a strategy
of enabling science to support
decision-making processes through
continuous interaction and
information flow between users and
providers of scientific information.
Such a new climate information
partnership would combine the unique
assets and special expertise of a
number of national, regional and
international institutions and
programs to support practical
decision-making in the context of
climate variability and change. The
objectives are to:
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Enhance and sustain observations
and monitoring of climate
conditions and consequences;
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Provide access to emerging
forecasting capabilities;
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Transform global-scale
predictions into forecasts
tailored to meet regional needs;
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Preserve free and open access to
climate data and products;
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Conduct research to improve
understanding of regional
impacts and explore future
opportunities; and
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Support regional
capacity-building through
training, education and public
outreach.
Participants were requested to apply
for a training institute on climate
variability and change to be held in
Honolulu in February 2001 at the
East-West Center.
Discussion Points
While
climate forecasts cover a larger
area spanning more than thousands of
kilometers in probabilistic terms,
users often operate within
considerably smaller areas such as
farm lands and river watersheds.
Hence, there is a huge challenge for
forecast and application researchers
to retail climate forecast
information for end-user benefits.
Most
research has been driven from the
climate and agro-ecological
communities, and has tended to
involve a top-down approach, where
uses are sought for existing
forecast information, and less
commonly by a bottom-up approach
where a decision situation is
examined to identify niches and
needs for climate forecasts.
Most
current forecast products lack the
spatial, temporal and elemental
specificity that users seek for
their specific decision-making
needs. It is important that our
approach shifts towards the idea of
understanding and managing climate
variability, and away from simply
applying a forecast product.
The
Climate Affairs Program concept
needs to be promoted as an
integration between climate and
society interactions. The program
should be developed with a
multi-disciplinary curriculum to
bring knowledge from different
fields together in addressing
climate issues.
To
educate the media and users,
specific groups must be identified
and messages tailored to them, e.g.,
the textile industry. With the
media, it should be understood that
not every writer is a science
writer, thus interdisciplinary teams
are necessary to convey messages.
Many believe that there are more
significant gains to be made by
communicating with the public than
through incremental advances in
scientific understanding. We should
be aware that in many developing
societies, the media only reach a
limited audience.
Recommendations
From
the ideas generated in the
presentations and throughout the
discussions, the participants
suggested a wide range of
recommendations. These have been
separated into the main discussion
themes:
Training
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Take advantage of the current
opportunity to educate and train
about climate impacts and not
just climate science, now that
we have the attention of users
and government on the usefulness
of climate information for
decision-making.
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Develop a Climate Affairs
Program to "educate the
educators" in different
countries. It could be promoted
not only through academic
institutions but also regional
institutions devoted to ECE
forecasting application
activities.
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Encourage meeting participants
to apply for the Climate
Training Institute, and to pass
on the information to their
colleagues at home.
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Support the development of a
regional training center.
Media
Interaction
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Educate the media, keeping in
mind various and intermittent
levels of interest with heavy
science information. Messages
must be tailored to identified
specific users (e.g., the
textile industry). Some sort of
interface is needed to enable
scientists to communicate with
the media and the public.
User
and Science Relationships
Research and Down-Scaling Models
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Increase and support research on
down-scaling, going from global
models to regional ones.
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The ECE group should participate
and play a key role in research
activities should the Monsoon
Prediction Center, currently
being proposed to the US
National Science Foundation, be
funded.
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The ASEAN meteorological
services should get together to
develop forecasts that belong to
everyone; each country could run
the model and all would develop
this capability.
Networking and Information Sharing
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Establish an international
forum. The ECE Program is a step
in this direction by bringing
together meteorologists and
users, and moving beyond
end-to-end relationship models.
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An
institutional network concerned
with various aspects of climate
forecast production and
application could be established
to share experiences on a
continuous basis.
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A
comprehensive newsletter on
climate outlook and impact
scenarios could be produced by
regional centers devoted to ECEs.
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Consult the resources and
documented experiences on
dealing with ENSO from other
regions. The Pacific ENSO
Applications Center is
developing a manual on 1997-98
El Niœo management experiences
for information sharing.
Partnerships
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Create interest and demand among
the private sector for climate
forecasts and application of
climate information.
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GCOS is looking for regional
partners to run workshops on
installing, maintaining and
using the information from
climate observing systems.
Extreme
Climate Events Program
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