ADPC
coordinated the Extreme Climate
Event Program Peer-review Meeting in
part to discuss opportunities for
networking and collaboration among
representatives from the three
participating countries and from
international and regional
organizations. Each organization has
a specialty that could be helpful if
combined with the ongoing research
and resources of other agencies and
organizations. During this session,
participants explored ways to take
advantage of collaboration
opportunities.
Presentation Highlights
The
ASEAN Specialized Meteorological
Centre (ASMC) conducted the first
workshop on regional climate in
1998, and came up with a climate
forecast for the purpose of an
outlook on the haze situation for
that year. Meetings are held to
review the forecasts and discuss
overall ENSO forecasts, with each
country doing a more detailed
forecast for the region. Regional
climate models are not used; the
forecasts are based on each
country's experience and ASMC
compiles them. Rainfall data are
provided by each country and posted
on the website to give a sense of
rainfall in the region.
A
National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA) initiative is
helping ASMC develop its regional
forecasting capacity, with the
International Research Institute for
Climate Prediction (IRI) assisting
in implementing its model within the
next few months. The program will
involve the transfer of a seasonal
prediction model from IRI to ASMC,
to be followed by training
workshops. With this capacity, ASMC
and the national meteorological
services will be able to play a more
useful role.
A
Regional Policy Workshop on the
Institutionalization of Climate
Forecasting Application Systems is
being planned by ADPC, given that
the matter comes down to fundamental
issues of governance and requires
high level support, and changes in
outlook, policies and programs. The
broad objectives of such a workshop
will be to:
-
share the findings of the ECE
Program, with specific
opportunities for application
and policy-level
recommendations;
-
garner support from
policy-makers for follow-up
programs;
-
share experiences among
countries; and
-
prepare for the next ENSO event.
Discussion Points
ASMC
has only recently begun producing
forecast information, and therefore,
their forecasts have not been
evaluated in a systematic way.
Regional climate models are on the
cutting edge of research and people
are still learning how to use them
properly.
The
initial experiences have been in
relation to the problems with fires
and regional haze. The Association
of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)
Local Haze Task Force meets
regularly, and briefings are
conducted to inform the media of the
likely impacts of the regional haze
situation. They do not yet have
broad experience with climate
forecasting, and must work with the
national agencies to improve their
information systems.
Several questions emerged in the
discussions about data collection
and processing, and disseminating
information. For regional models, is
it necessary to intensify the data
collection efforts, or will the same
data work with fine-tuning of the
global models? Is it important to
consider the types and formats of
the data needed to build and
strengthen local models? How are the
regional forecasts disseminated to
the national meteorological
services? How do we bring our
products to the users? It is hoped
that partnerships among the workshop
participants will help resolve these
questions.
Recommendations
Participants were excited with the
possibilities for collaboration on
future projects. They suggested
several activities to improve
communication among organizations
and to provide opportunities for
networking and partnerships.
-
Develop a clearer idea of what
is meant by forecasting "skill
scores" as well as "forecast
quality."
-
Synchronize efforts to develop
regional forecast models among
the ASMC, national
meteorological services and
ADPC. Even though the forecast
is regional, the applications
are at national and even local
levels. Hold a forum for sharing
experiences.
-
ADPC should work more closely
with the national meteorological
services, because they are
centralized and focused, while
the user community is large and
widespread.
-
National meteorological
services, in turn, should create
"users councils" that provide a
usersŲ voice, but the
meteorological services will
have to take the initiative.
ADPC can have a regional
influence, but it cannot do that
at the national level.
-
Approach trade and resource
associations (e.g., water,
tourism) comprising user groups
to understand the impacts of
climate in these communities.
They often have "risk management
sub-committees," and they will
be interested in talking about
what climate means to them.
-
With overall agreement among the
meeting participants, pursue the
proposed idea for a Regional
Policy Workshop.
