Experiences of managing recent ENSO
events in Southeast Asia show that
direct application of long-lead
forecast information based on global
ENSO parameters poses serious
difficulties for local
decision-making purposes. The
scientific community tends to focus
on regional impacts, while it is the
specific local effects which are
much less predictable from one ENSO
to another. To understand local
effects of ECEs on society and the
environment, it was decided to
document the history of past events
over 30-40 years, and the associated
institutional responses and policy
frameworks in the target countries
of Indonesia, the Philippines and
Vietnam. The retrospective
assessment of past ECEs was intended
to serve as a tool to forecast local
impacts based on historical trends.
The ECE Program adopted strategies,
approaches and methodologies to
document and analyze past events.
During the implementation, these
practices underwent changes that
were dictated by the level of
research efforts, the availability
of data and the level of expertise
to collect and analyze data in each
of the three countries. A draft
Methodology Document was presented
to the ECE Program Peer-review
Meeting with a request that
participants review it in order to
validate the methodologies adopted
by the ECE Program.
Presentation Highlights
Kamal
Kishore (ADPC) led the discussion by
stating that the participating
countries desired to undertake
demonstration projects during the
pilot phase of the ECE Program,
based on their understanding of
extreme climate events. There was
almost no precedent for documenting
ECE impacts, nor of using them as a
regional forecast tool. The
rationale for translating ENSO
parameters into local weather
variables is that:
-
application of global ENSO
information on the basis of
perceived (rather than actual)
impacts can be risky.
-
different ENSO events have
different impacts in terms of
onset, duration and intensity.
-
decision-makers are interested
in knowing the specific local
impacts attributable to various
ENSO phases.
With
many ENSO definitions available, the
documentation process adopted a
flexible approach to selecting
suitable definitions for assessing
ENSO impacts, considering the
specificities of climate regimes in
different geographical zones,
seasons and sectors in each country.
Given
time and resource constraints, the
selection of parameters and indices,
relating to local weather features,
bio-physical characteristics and
socio-economic variables, was
restricted to a few critical ones
based on criteria evolved in
consultation with participating
country partners. In the project
pilot phase, the agriculture and
water resources sectors were
selected for detailed study, with a
limited focus on public health. In
terms of areas, those with high
intra-annual climate variability in
normal years, and those perceived to
be ENSO-sensitive, were examined
through a combination of direct
(deductive) and indirect (inductive)
impact assessment methods, which
varied by country. The documentation
of ECEs was undertaken by the
partner institutions through a
participatory process, with ADPC
acting as a facilitator, which has
helped to build national
institutional networks of climate
forecast information providers and
users.
An
analytical methodology has been
developed to establish linkages
among the following inter-connected
components of an end-to-end climate
information system.
-
ENSO impact on regional climate
controls such as monsoon
systems, tropical cyclones and
other linear systems which
impact a countryØs climate.
-
The influences of ENSO-impacted
climate controls on local
weather elements like rainfall,
temperature and humidity.
-
The influences of ENSO-impacted
local weather on bio-physical
parameters, for example, crop
yield and water resources.
-
The impact of bio-physical
parameters on society, and
societyØs influence on
environment-governing
bio-physical parameters.
Each
sequential step is mediated by
dynamic non-linear interactions
which inter-play to add
complexities. However, there are
discernible patterns in the midst of
the complexities. The documentation
methodologies endeavored to identify
these patterns to understand ENSO
tele-connection and its impact at
the local level. Efforts were made
to survey analytical methodologies
already available in other parts of
the world and adopt them with
suitable modifications, considering
the local features of each target
country.
A
significant preliminary outcome of
this approach was the identification
of ENSO sensitive zones in Vietnam,
which led to a reclassification of
climatic zones from the traditional
nine agro-ecological zones, to four
regions where the application of
ENSO climate forecast information
was feasible.
Discussion Points
Comparisons of methods used for
dealing with extreme climate events
are difficult because different
methods are used across countries.
The intended use of the Methodology
Document was not for comparison,
however, but for validation of the
methodologies used, which will
enable countries to pursue relevant
elements and to understand how ENSO
affects the countries in specific
sectors and areas through a specific
method.
There
are several methods that have been
highlighted. The time-scaling of
different methods needs to be made
explicit. For example, how many
months are reviewed, which seasons
have been considered, and which
decades were reviewed? The
time-scale is critical to the
evaluation of particular methods.
Historical rainfall data is also
essential to make it possible to see
how the seasons change and to review
the effects of extreme climate
events over time. Because agencies
and researchers have formatted types
of data differently, it becomes
difficult to collect data and store
it in a database that will yield
comparative results.
Difficulties encountered with data
inadequacies, whether in terms of
quality or time periods, was
repeatedly emphasized as a serious
constraint for ENSO application
researchers to draw meaningful
conclusions. Climate impact
assessment researchers could
overcome these constraints by making
limitations explicit while drawing
conclusions from interpretation of
available data.
Some
participants held the view that
there is a need to standardize the
definition of ENSO events to
facilitate understanding of ENSO
forecast information by various
users. The consensus was that a
universally accepted definition
might not be available in the near
future. While standard definitions
of ENSO events are useful, a search
for a precise definition may not be
necessary at this stage. Hence,
there is a need to encourage climate
forecast and application researchers
to adopt appropriate definitions,
keeping in mind local conditions
such as seasonal and regional
peculiarities in each country.
As
local impacts vary from event to
event, no effort should be made to
link ENSO indices with local impacts
in deterministic terms. The
practical way to present ENSO tele-connections
attributions could be in terms of
shifts of statistical probabilities
of a set of meteorological events
during the course of seasons and
their likely socio-economic impacts
in probabilistic terms. As
policy-makers and end-users do not
understand probabilistic concepts,
an appropriate communication package
needs to be developed with
explanations of all uncertainties
involved in the climate forecast
information. These communication
products could be useful to "educate
the educators", be they the media,
politicians or policy-makers, who in
turn, could be requested to carry
them forward to the general public.
Using
the term "extreme climate events"
creates misapprehension in the minds
of decision-makers. In some
situations, it leads to a "crisis
mentality" that produces quick, and
often inappropriate, responses. A
view was also expressed that using
the term "ECE" attracts the
attention of policy-makers to lend
support to intervention measures.
Experts should provide information
based on science to enable
policy-makers to avoid inappropriate
responses. ENSO needs to be
separated from other climate-related
problems. The long-term goal of
these kinds of projects is to have
governments believe that it is so
important that it becomes a part of
their business because it affects
the society. Awareness-raising is
needed, but so is action by
governments.
Peter
King (ADB) wondered why rice was the
crop selected for a detailed study
when the impact of weather events
was severe on upland subsidiary
crops that support the most
vulnerable groups. Romeo S. Recide,
Department of Agriculture,
Philippines, explained that the
rationale for choosing rice was due
to its socio-economic significance
in ensuring food security in the
participating countries, as well as
the availability of long-term time
series data for assessing ECE impact
on agriculture. In addition, there
have been extensive studies
conducted on rice production and
data are available on this crop.
The
Methodology Document does not
include information about how
climate works, even though there is
a vast amount of knowledge. The
purpose of the document is not to
focus on weather science; however,
some of the conclusions drawn in it
should be better based on science.
The impacts of extreme climate
events can be difficult to evaluate
since they occur within the context
of political, cultural, economic and
social problems that may exacerbate
the effects of the climate event. It
is important to consider these
contexts so that resources can be
optimized. The socio-economic
setting and decision-making
structures determine how and when
climate forecasts will be used.
Other factors that intensify the
effects of the climate event also
need to be accounted for, such as
deforestation, soil erosion and
settlement patterns.
Recommendations
During
the discussions about the draft
Methodology Document and ways to
share methods for dealing with
extreme climate events, the workshop
participants recommended the
following:
-
Methods used need to be made
more explicit, as does the
implementation in different
countries, so that replication
will be possible. Standardize
the collection of data and
support provided for data
analysis.
-
Standardize the definitions of
ENSO events.
-
Conduct specific discussions of
oscillation cycles and Pacific
climate patterns. Work more on
defining thresholds.
-
Bring the insurance industry and
the private sector into
consideration and discussions
about ENSO events and impacts,
since they are major
stakeholders.
-
Develop the document for
sub-regional cooperation, to
share experiences from this
project.
-
Support national researchers to
undertake climate application
research to provide impact
forecasting in the high
ENSO-sensitive zones.
Methodologies for providing
forecast outlooks about
potential societal impacts are
as necessary as forecasts of
ENSO onsets.
-
Encourage regional and national
researchers to understand and
use ENSO indices, and to link
them with bio-physical and
societal impacts. Methodologies
already available world-wide
should be shared through
institutional networking as well
as through training programs at
global, regional, national and
local levels.
-
Use methodologies already in
practice to create resource
books on climate information,
with institutional arrangements
for using and updating them.
-
Expand methodologies to cover
other climate-sensitive sectors
and to assess second and
third-order impacts.
-
Develop an integrated impact
assessment methodology covering
all components and sectors to
convince policy-makers to take a
holistic view of climate and
society interactions.
