Introduction to the Meeting
The
ECE Program is a follow-up
initiative to the Asian Regional
Meeting on El Nino Related Crises
held in February 1998 by ADPC in
collaboration with the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA) and with
support from the United States
Office of Foreign Disaster
Assistance (OFDA). The goal of the
ECE program is to significantly
improve the understanding of the
impacts of extreme climate events
such as El Nio and La Nia on
society and the environment in
selected Asian countries and to
reduce the disaster impacts of such
events through effective application
of climate forecast information. The
OFDA-supported pilot program
targeted the three Southeast Asian
countries of Indonesia, the
Philippines and Vietnam, and also
prepared the ground for a
longer-term comprehensive regional
program towards the application of
climate forecasts for minimizing
negative consequences and
capitalizing on potential benefits
associated with ECEs.
In
October 1998, the Start-up Technical
Strategy Session for the program was
held at ADPC in Bangkok.
Participants from the three target
countries and international experts
deliberated the issues and
recommended an implementation
strategy for the project. The
Strategy Session inter alia
recommended that the understanding
of issues relating to application
prospects of long-range forecast
information should have a national
focus.
As a
follow-on to the recommendations of
the Strategy Session, national
scoping workshops were organized in
all three target countries, with
participants drawn from physical
climate prediction agencies and
climate forecast information user
organizations. The national scoping
workshops came up with
implementation plans to undertake
the documentation of past extreme
climate events, their effects on
local weather variables across
different parts of the country, and
their impacts.
The
ECE Program Peer-review Meeting ,
held from 5-6 October 2000 in
Bangkok, brought together
representatives of the national
agencies, and regional and
international climate specialists .
Its objectives were to:
-
Review and validate the
methodologies adopted by the ECE
Program for documentation and
analysis of the impacts of past
extreme climate events on
different sectors in Indonesia,
the Philippines and Vietnam.
-
Identify specific follow-up
pilot activities in the three
target countries.
-
Review the lessons learned
during the implementation of the
ECE Program, and identify
opportunities for replication in
the Asian region.
In
addition to these pre-determined
objectives, during the opening
session participants also expressed
expectations that the meeting would:
-
Evaluate the ECE Program
objectives and progress made,
and identify constraints
-
Identify research needs
-
Discuss and understand sectoral
risk and probability
-
Discuss "safety nets" and social
aspects of extreme events, as
these affect sustainability
-
Build synergy and cohesion among
operations, science and users
-
Identify scientific and
institutional partnerships in
the Asia-Pacific region
-
Promote the ECE Program as a
priority of development agencies
Contributions of the ECE Program
During
the final session of the Peer-review
Meeting, participants expressed
their perceptions of contributions
gained through their involvement in
the ECE Program. In general, there
is greater awareness and
appreciation of ECEs and their
impacts. More specifically,
contributions were seen in the broad
areas of data, users, climate
variation, the national
meteorological services,
collaboration, and to ADPC itself,
each spelled out in more detail
below.
Enhanced Awareness
The
ECE Program has enhanced awareness
in the target countries regarding
climate variability, and its
differential impacts on different
geographical locations and sectors.
There is now a greater recognition
of the need to understand better the
linkages between global climatic
phenomena and local climatic
conditions. There is a greater
recognition of different users and
the need to ask them how they cope
with ECEs.
Enhanced Inter-sectoral Dialogue
The
ECE Program has helped in promoting
inter-sectoral dialogue among
various departments and agencies
responsible directly or indirectly
for managing the impacts of extreme
climate events. Participants from
Indonesia noted that it was the
first time that a range of
stakeholders in climate information
came together. Colleagues in the
PhilippinesØ public health sector
have gained a new perspective on
their own field by looking at the
interactions of health and ECEs. For
Vietnam, it was the first time that
a range of existing and potential
users of climate information
interacted with the national
meteorological agency at a common
platform. In Vietnam, first steps
are now being taken to
institutionalize this process.
Throughout the meeting discussions,
inter-sectoral collaboration
repeatedly arose as not only a
stimulus contributed by the ECE
Program, but also as a direction in
which participants were clearly
committed to continuing. Put
briefly, in many cases the ECE
Program was the reason why
"stakeholders" came together.
Information Base on ENSO Events
The
peer-review meeting participants
noted that even though climate
information related to past ENSO
events exists in the target
countries, the ECE Program was the
first attempt to build an official
information base on past ENSO
impacts. More attention is now being
paid to the importance of data:
compiling and processing it,
developing and consulting databases
with more awareness of ENSO, and
getting processed information to
users. The ECE Program has been able
to generate a general map of
vulnerability to past events which
will form a basis for further
action.
New
Possibilities for Mitigation of
Impacts
The
documentation and analysis of past
impacts of extreme climate events
has led to identification of new
possibilities for mitigation of
climate variability related impacts.
Tangible opportunities have been
identified in typhoon prediction,
public health, water resources and
agriculture production sectors.
Under the ECE Program, climate
impacts on public health were
recognized for the first time. In
addition to episodes of extreme
impacts, the Program has identified
opportunities for application of
climate information for purposes
such as increasing rice production.
This has provided ADPC with an
opportunity to deal with a range of
sectoral agencies and not only
disaster management agencies. It is
expected that in the case of future
extreme climate events, ADPC will be
able to mobilize these networks to
institute mitigation measures well
before impacts of these events start
appearing.
Role of National Meteorological
Services (NMS)
The
representatives of the national
meteorological services at the
meeting expressed that the ECE
Program has enhanced the awareness
of the role of meteorological
agencies within their countries. On
one hand, it has highlighted the
responsibility of NMSs towards user
departments and on the other, the
Program has helped develop a better
understanding of the difficult role
of NMSs. The participants felt that
this would help garner more support
for NMSs within their respective
countries.
Need for Regional Collaboration
The
Program highlighted the important
role of regional collaboration in
the area of climate forecasting
applications. The important role of
the ASEAN Specialized Meteorological
Center in the region has been
appreciated. Tangible opportunities
for collaboration between the
Philippines and Vietnam in the area
of typhoon prediction have been
identified.
Enhanced Capacity of ADPC
ADPC
has gained from working with new
agencies (e.g., national
meteorological services, agriculture
departments, public health
departments) and specializations,
and has expanded its ability to deal
with its disaster management mandate
in more areas with more expertise.
At the same time, the ECE Program
has challenged ADPC by raising
expectations about its role and
level of expertise, highlighting the
need to build partnerships and
strengthen institutional
arrangements.
Recommendations for Follow-up
As
mentioned previously, there was a
strong commitment among all
participants to continuing the work
begun under the ECE Program. Indeed,
the meeting was pervaded with the
sense that, in addition to the clear
contributions made by the program
and the benefits gained by the
participating agencies, this first
phase also succeeded in raising
numerous areas for follow-up. These
are categorized below as pilot
activities and research studies,
although there will be some overlap
between them. The recommendations
have a two-fold purpose: first, to
indicate potential areas for
follow-up in the three target
countries as expressed by the
meeting participants, and second, to
inform the expansion of ADPC and the
ECE ProgramØs efforts to
institutionalize the program at
national levels and develop similar
programs in other regions, with
extension in the next phase to
Bangladesh and Thailand.
Pilot Activities
-
Focus on specific users: develop
methodologies to translate
climate information into
possible impacts; assess
community coping strategies;
develop vulnerability indices.
-
Consider user needs and
activities at a "deeper" level.
Pilot the application of climate
information in one or two
provinces in each country where
understanding of climate systems
and forecast skills is good. The
program needs expansion into
other areas to look at specific
in-country variations.
-
ADPC should develop a database
of different climate information
user needs and responses to
allow comparability among
countries.
-
Test communications systems in
the region to ensure their
usability during ECEs.
-
Develop lead-time scenarios for
application of climate forecasts
in different sectors. This will
help in determining an optimal
lead-time for dissemination and
application of climate forecasts
in specific sectors, and
emphasize that both skill and
timing of the forecasts are
important.
-
The Philippines and Vietnam need
collaboration in research about
typhoons since they are often
both affected by the same
systems, or one system affects
one country, and then moves
towards the other.
-
Develop training curricula and
conduct climate forecasting
applications training.
Collaborate with IRI, NCAR and
East-West Center in order to
move in this direction.
-
Develop preparedness guides for
dealing with the impacts of the
next ENSO in different countries
of the region.
Research Studies
-
Study the indirect impacts of
tropical storms, such as heavy
rains from a tropical storm that
directly affect one country, but
cause flooding and crop losses
in another.
-
Assess in greater detail impacts
of extreme climate events on
critical resource sectors.
-
Evaluate the economic costs and
benefits of the application of
ENSO forecasts.
-
Evaluate community responses to
increase awareness about
vulnerability and specific
responses.
-
Identify the difference between
exposure to risk and
vulnerability to risk: these
vary with hazard, area and
sector. It becomes increasingly
complex to identify specific
vulnerabilities. Areas
frequently exposed to risk can
be identified, and action taken
to mitigate impacts.
-
Assess the resilience and
adaptive capacity: There is a
need to understand how capable
communities are in responding.
What information is available?
When is it important to provide
information? These questions
highlight the importance of
defining user needs.
