Extant
climate impact assessment
methodologies in the agricultural
sector rely on indicators like
rainfall distribution, crop
monitoring and water level positions
in reservoirs, which gives little
lead-time before harvest to make
resource management and disaster
preparedness intervention
strategies. ENSO forecasts now
available are able to provide the
possible climate anomalies with
considerable lead-time to enable
sector agencies to undertake
potential impact assessments and
prepare contingency and risk
management plans. This session was
intended to share the methodologies
adopted by the agricultural sector
agencies in the target countries to
use long-range climate forecast
information for decision-making
purposes.
Presentation Highlights
Sutarto Alimoeso of Indonesia noted
that at present no acceptable
methodologies are available to
interpret long-range forecasts for
decision-making purposes. The ECE
pilot study enabled the development
of a methodology to delineate
ENSO-sensitive zones at provincial
level. There is a need to take this
methodology further to district and
sub-district levels for
operationalizing climate forecast
and application systems in the
agricultural sector.
Institutionally, there is no
specific unit in the Ministry of
Agriculture that deals with climate.
In addition, there are no
operational climate policies. Thus,
there is also a need to have a unit
in the Ministry of Agriculture to
interpret long-range forecasts for
decision-making purposes.
Collaborative climate application
research also needs to be evolved to
address all possible knowledge gaps
in applying climate forecast
information. Weather and climate
terms of meteorological science are
not commonly understood by many
agriculture sector personnel.
Although ENSO, as a term, is gaining
currency, its meaning is unclear. In
general, there is a low level of
climate expertise at central and
local government levels. Future
plans include:
-
Improving institutional capacity
to handle all aspects of
agroclimatology.
-
Enhancing collaborative climate
information applications
research at national and
international levels.
-
Promote the understanding of
officers and farmers on climate.
-
Repairing and replacing
recording equipment in
agrometeorological stations in
the weather observation network.
Romeo
Recide, of the Philippines
Department of Agriculture, mentioned
that, on receipt of advisories from
PAGASA, they carry out potential
impact assessments based on
agriculture production data. The
department prepares region-wise
potential impact assessment
scenarios and shares these with
agriculture research institutions
and other agencies such as water
resources, irrigation and food
security agencies. On receipt of
inputs from these organizations on
the potential impact assessment
scenarios, modifications are made
and the final processed information
is passed on to regional
agricultural departments.
The
ECE research study enabled the
Bureau of Agricultural Statistics to
assess the impact of ENSO on crop
production by utilizing past data
and cross-referencing it with ENSO
indices. This methodology would be
further refined to evolve potential
impact assessments at the provincial
and local levels in respect of
various seasons. The second and
third-order impacts of ENSO could
also be studied to have an
integrated assessment of ENSO's
impact on the primary sector and its
cascading effect on other sectors
and the national economy.
In the
Philippines, a study was conducted
to attribute area-specific impacts
to ECE indicators, in an effort to
develop planning tools. Results
reported by Romeo Recide indicated
that declines in gross value added (GVA)
and production volume of four
principal crops (rice, corn,
sugarcane and coconut) coincide with
El Nino years, while increases are
associated with La Nina years due to
favorable rainfall conditions. The
sharpest falls in GVA and production
volume in the agricultural sector
were in 1982-83 and 1997-98, the
years with the strongest El Ninos of
the century. It was also found that
livestock, poultry and fisheries
sub-sectors are not sensitive to
ECEs. Improved aquaculture
production in recent years has
compensated for any loss during warm
episodes. Third-order impacts
include shortfalls in projected
annual economic growth, increased
burdens on urban resources as
displaced agricultural workers
migrate to cities, and increased
dependence of agricultural workers
on government assistance.
Nguyen
Van Viet reported that by adopting a
correlation coefficient methodology
between ENSO indices and crop
production indices, it was possible
to establish some linkages. However,
this methodology needs to be refined
taking into account all variations
from global circulation to local
climate controls and in turn local
weather variables.
There
is variation and climate disturbance
in ENSO years (either El Nino or La
Nina), with most variation in
temperature, rainfall, sunshine
duration and typhoons. Variation
also occurs across different
ecological regions. For example, in
La Niœa years, there are more
typhoons and floods than normal in
the central coastal region. There is
evident impact of ENSO on
agricultural production on crop
yield, gross and cultivated area.
MEI and SOI will be used in early
agrometeorological monitoring and
crop yield forecasting, especially
for rice. This will be important for
ensuring food security in Vietnam.
The study recommends that:
-
Research be conducted on ECEs
and measures to cope with them
in the nine agro-ecological
regions of Vietnam.
-
Establishment of a
communications network from
central to provincial and
district levels and farmers to
enhance the capacity of the
agro-meteorological monitoring
system to match climate
information with end users'
needs.
Discussion Points
Lessons can be learned from local
traditional knowledge and practices
in utilizing climate forecast
information and these need to be
explored for adoption. For example,
in Vietnam, disasters increased and
crop production also increased at
the same time, because people
learned to change the crop calendar
based on local knowledge and
experience. A significant yield gap
exists between research stations and
farmersØ fields. Understanding of
the nature of the farming systems,
market demands and management
options available to different types
of farmers needs to be improved.
Communicating probabilities is
problematic because there are
different levels of response to
uncertainty, and the farmer may only
want to know, "Do I have enough
water to grow this crop?" Extension
systems can provide information
directly to farmers because the
infrastructure already exists, but
this requires that the scientific
community provide information with
sufficient lead-time for response.
To get
the appropriate information, it is
important to tap into existing
regional, national and local
networks, within which it is
essential to find appropriate means
of communicating information. The
potential impact on methodologies
needs to be incorporated into the
communication packages of the
agricultural extension systems in
each country through an appropriate
training program. Geographic
information systems (GIS) are one
tool that provides a visual
depiction of the problem and conveys
meaning for policy-makers. GIS can
be used to demonstrate impacts for
specific geographic locations.
Recommendations
To
address issues identified during
discussions on providing lead-time
to get forecast information to user
communities in the most useable
format, participants made the
following recommendations:
-
Conduct impact assessments and
evaluate the lead-time
requirements of the various user
groups, and provide users with
the required information in an
appropriate actionable format,
since the lead-time requirement
varies from user to user.
-
Establish pilot demonstration
projects in ENSO-sensitive zones
where the ENSO signal is strong.
The experiences of START in
implementing climate prediction
and agriculture (CLIMAG) could
be utilized for establishing
pilot demonstration projects in
the target countries.
-
Analyze key points in the
agricultural planning cycle
where there are opportunities to
make use of seasonal forecast
information to modify management
of the agricultural sector at a
national level through applied
research efforts.
-
Conduct a research study to
capture varying impact patterns
of extreme climate events on
crop production. These vary from
event to event due to the
complex interplay of weather and
non-weather factors. Use the
results of the study for
managing ENSO-related
disturbances in the crop
production cycle.
-
Convey local traditional
knowledge and practices to the
meteorological community, to
enable them to produce usable
forecasts.
-
Use GIS methods to build
databases that show the
specifics of an area, and that
take into account local
knowledge.
