Fundamentals of Tropical Cyclones

Disasters are on the rise around the world. Over the past decade, disasters averaged $70 billion in damages and affected 200 million people annually, according to the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies. These impacts fall disproportionately on developing countries, which experience only one-fifth of the world’s total disaster events, but half of the fatalities.

Disasters are particularly frustrating because the knowledge that is needed to reduce their impacts, to improve lives and reduce harm, is in hand. The challenge is in the successful translation of knowledge into action.

Experience with tropical cyclones reflects both the trend of growing impacts as well as the frustration of seeing theoretical understanding of solutions run into the practical realities of implementation. In our work, we have identified ten "tropical cyclone fundamentals" as follows:

• Tropical cyclones are the most costly disasters worldwide. Earthquakes are a close second, but cyclones affect more people and more places.
   

• Damages due to cyclones have increased at a rate that far exceeds any trends in the occurrence or intensity of the storms themselves. This results from growing development in exposed coastal locations. Inland flooding from this phenomenon is a growing threat as well.
   

• A large loss of life is possible in many locations around the world, including the United States. Devastating storms in the Indian region and Central America remind us of the magnitude of disaster that they can wreak and inspire the need for improved preparedness.
   

• Forecasts of tropical cyclone tracks can continue to improve, but the benefits associated with any such improvements depend on developing mechanisms for their effective use by decision-makers.
   

• Expect climate to vary. The future will likely see considerable variability in storm occurrences, and more events are always a possibility.
   

• There are very good reasons to improve response to tropical cyclones quite independent of concern about "global warming". In fact, to the extent that attention to global warming focuses solely on energy policies, it may distract attention from reducing vulnerability, particularly in developing countries.
   

• Tropical cyclone landfalls highlight successes and failures in preparedness and can provide valuable knowledge that will help others to avoid human suffering.
   

• Short-term decisions made in the face of an approaching storm are based on decision processes put in place over the long-term. With a storm approaching it is often easy to get people’s attention. It is much harder to do so when there is no immediate threat. But a long-term perspective is necessary for the development of effective preparedness.
   

• Science itself, including social science, is not a sufficient basis for improving tropical cyclone preparedness. Effective mechanisms are needed for the transfer of knowledge into practice. One way to work towards this goal is to involve those affected by the science and the storms to participate in the setting of research priorities and connecting the results of research with the needs of decision-makers.
   

• Society knows, in large part, how to respond to tropical cyclones. The challenge is to apply knowledge and lessons learned in particular contexts. How to do this will require the thoughtful integration of resources with perspectives focused on addressing particular vulnerabilities in specific locations.
   

• We think that these "fundamentals" provide a basis for strengthening and further developing effective programs of preparedness for tropical cyclones worldwide. They also provide a compelling justification for a greater engagement of the global scientific community with the ultimate end-users of the results of research. Effective action in the face of tropical cyclones can provide useful lessons to those dealing with other types of disasters worldwide

Prof Roger A Pielke Jr and Prof Roger A Pielke Sr are at the University of Colorado and Colorado State University respectively. Prof Roger A. Pielke Jr can be contacted at pielke@cires.colorado.edu