Climate Forecast Application in
Bangladesh (CFAB-II)
Overview
To further strengthen the efforts under CFAB-I,
a second phase entitled “Flood
Forecast Technology for Disaster Preparedness in
Bangladesh”
is being implemented by the Asian Disaster
Preparedness Center (ADPC) in collaboration with
national and international partners. The US
Agency for International Development’s
Bangladesh Office is supporting this project
from 2006 to 2009 through CARE-Bangladesh under
the SOUHARDO program.
Project Objective 1:
Forecast technology tested and transferred, and
capacities developed to operationalize the
forecast systems within Bangladesh. It is
expected that the Bangladesh Meteorological
Department (BMD) and Flood Forecasting and
Warning Center (FFWC) will be technically and
technologically capable of handling their own
climate and flood forecasts and make decisions
that will allow remedial actions to be taken.
Project Objective 2:
Sustainable end-to-end generation and
application of flood information established
through pilot projects at selected sites,
showing measurable improvements. This involves
participatory identification of flood–related
problems and communication of forecast products
to end users, including farmers, fishermen, and
other communities whose livelihoods are affected
by floods.
The proposed forecasting system provides
forecasts of regional precipitation and Ganges
and Brahmaputra river discharge into Bangladesh
on three overlapping time scales:
1-6 months:
“Broad brush” estimates of regional rainfall
and Brahmaputra (B) and Ganges (G) river
discharge into Bangladesh (collectively B+G
and individually B and G). Forecasts are
issued every month for 6-month periods.
These forecasts are issued to provide
information for strategic planning in
agriculture and allied sectors and for
disaster preparedness.
20-30 days:
Forecasts of regional rainfall and river
discharge (B and G) on 20-30 days time scale
provides forecasts for 5-day average
periods
(pentads) centered at 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 and
30 days. Forecasts are issued every 5 days
and are used to allow both strategic and
tactical decisions in the agricultural,
water resources and disaster management
sectors. There are currently two versions of
the 20-30 day forecasts schemes: Mode I, the
existing version, which provides only a
single forecast at a particular time in the
future (say 20, 25 days) and Mode II (under
development which provides a probabilistic
forecast like the 1-10 day scheme described
below.
1-10 day forecasts:
Issued daily for 1-10 days providing
probability forecasts of regional
precipitation and river discharge. These
forecasts have been rendered to provide
probability of flood level exceedance at the
entry point of the G and B into Bangladesh.
The forecasts have been incorporated into
the forecast river routing model of the
Government of Bangladesh’s Flood Forecast
and Warning Centre (FFWC) on an experimental
operational basis.
The project involves the participation of
institutions/networks namely the Climate
Forecast Application Network (CFAN) in Georgia,
USA, Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD),
Flood Forecasting and Warning Center (FFWC),
Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB),
Department of Agriculture Extension (DAE)
Disaster Management Bureau (DMB), Center for
Environmental and Geographic Information
Services (CEGIS), Institute of Water Modeling (IWM)
and CARE-Bangladesh.
