|
ECE Phase
I
Philippines -
Scoping Workshop on the Documentation of
the Impacts of and Responses to Extreme
Climate Events
31 January 2000
Quezon City
INTRODUCTION
Developments during the last decade
have led to a new definition of
climate services and the emergence
of new priorities in the
presentation and use of climate
information, especially in relation
to extreme climate events, such as
the El Nino and La Nina phenomena.
The consequences of this change in
perspective of climate services
brings new opportunities in the
utilization of climate information
for economic and societal
decision-making at the national and
regional level.
Documenting and analyzing the
impacts of extreme climate events
are not easy as they require a
multi-disciplinary approach. Present
day assessment methods for
evaluating the impacts of these
events are not particularly precise,
and it is more likely that the
actual costs of the impacts of such
events on the economy and the
environment are much greater than is
generally presented in these
assessments,
The
present workshop is the initial
activity under a 3-part program
aimed at enhancing national
capabilities in the prediction and
monitoring of extreme climate events
such as the El Niœo and La Niœa
phenomena, and the assessment of
their impacts on the economy and the
environment.
top^
PROCEEDINGS
I.
Opening Ceremonies
After
the participants have registered,
simple ceremonies ushering the
official start of the workshop began
with the singing of the National
Anthem, followed by the traditional
Invocation.
In her
Welcome Address, Dr. Clarita Carlos
of the National Defense College of
the Philippines (NDCP) gave a brief
but very enlightening report on her
recent trip to Bangkok where she
represented the country in a
regional conference on disaster
management, which highlighted
disaster management as a regional
undertaking and that since disaster
know no national boundaries, the
collaboration and cooperation of and
among governments of the region is
essential. She greeted the
participants with a warm welcome and
congratulated the various agencies
who helped to make the workshop a
reality.
Mr.
Cipriano C. Ferraris, Deputy
Director of the PAGASA for Research
and Development, delivered a message
in behalf of Dr. Leoncio A. Amadore,
PAGASA Director, who had to attend
to an earlier commitment. In his
message, Mr. Ferraris acknowledged
the initiatives being taken by ADPC
to assist countries in Southeast
Asia as very timely and significant,
considering the disastrous effects
that these events bring to the
economies of the countries in the
region. He cited the objectives of
the ADPC program as very laudable
that merits the support of
governments in the region, and
expressed his confidence that the
aims of the present workshop would
be very adequately met.
The
Honorable Orlando S. Mercado,
Secretary of National Defense and
Chairman of the National Disaster
Coordinating Council (NDCC), had to
rush to the south for an ocular
inspection of the reported flash
floods in Mindanao, and was,
therefore, unable to grace the
opening ceremonies to deliver the
keynote address. However, he left
word that he would try to make it to
the workshop if his schedule for the
day would permit.
top^
II.
Technical Presentations
1.
Extreme Climate Events - by Dr. Aida
M. Jose
Dr. A.
Jose, Scientist I and Chief of the
Climatology and Agrometeorology
Branch of PAGASA, began her
presentation with an introduction of
the climate system in general, a
description of the countryØs
climate, and the climate controls
that influence and produce the
observed changes in the behavior of
the various climatic elements. She
described the seasonal abnormalities
that affect the country, identified
flood and storm surge prone areas
and enumerated some of the important
information and statistics on
Philippine climate, which can be
summarized as follows:
-
The country suffers from
droughts, floods and strong
winds associated with weather
systems and patterns such as
tropical cyclones, the monsoons,
and the larger scale climate
patterns we have come to know as
the El Nino and La Nina
phenomena.
-
An
average of 20 tropical cyclones
occur within or enter the
Philippine Area of
Responsibility (PAR) every year
of which, 8 to 9 cross the
country,
-
Most disastrous typhoons occur
in November and December, while
cyclones occurring in July,
August and September are
enhanced by the southwest
monsoon.
-
During the period from 1948 to
1998, the early 1970's had the
most number of tropical cyclone
occurrence.
-
In
the disastrous rainfall event of
1972 associated with Typhoon "Didang",
the highest 24-hour rainfall
recorded was 371 mm., which is 3
times the montly average.
-
During the prolonged floods of
July 1972 associated with the
intensified southwest monsoon
and 4 tropical cyclones which
were then affecting the country,
over 1,000 mm. of rainfall was
recorded in 30 days of heavy
rainfall, with only one day
without rain.
Dr.
Jose also discussed the El
Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
phenomenon, a global scale,
naturally occurring cycle, which is
actually composed of two phases;
namely, the El Nino (or warm phase),
and the La Nina (or cold phase). A
visual presentation of a time series
graph for the period 1950-2000 was
displayed on a large projection
screen for the benefit of the
participants, showing the various
warm and cold episodes. The
following observations were noted:
-
There were more warm and cold
episodes than normal seasons
recorded during the period.
-
There were more El ino years
than La Nina in the last two
decades.
-
The time series graph of sea
surface temperatures over the
central equatorial Pacific
showed alternating occurrences
of El Nino and La Nina episodes.
The
general climatic conditions that
prevail during El Nino and La Nina
episodes were discussed in detail.
Based
on available data from various
government agencies, a summary of
the damages suffered by agriculture
brought about by typhoons, floods
and droughts were also presented.
top^
2.
Overview: Documentation and Analysis
of Impacts of and Responses to
Extreme Climate Events - by Mr.
Kamal Kishore
The
ADPC representative provided
important insights into the ADPC
Program for Understanding Extreme
Climate Events (ECE), which is a
follow-up initiative to the Asian
Regional Meeting on El Nino Related
Crises held in February in
collaboration with the USAID/OFDA
and the NOAA. The program aims at
improving the understanding of
extreme climate events and their
impact on society and the
environment in Southeast Asia. It is
funded by the OFDA and is currently
being implemented in Vietnam,
Indonesia and the Philippines.
Citing
scientific advancements that have
been attained worldwide, he noted
that it was time to translate these
advances into local level
applications. The awareness level in
the Philippines was also noted which
he described as the strongest among
the three countries included in the
program and that the country has a
lot of experience and lessons that
it can share with other countries.
Mr.
Kishore happily informed the
participants that he was overwhelmed
by the level of support extended to
the project by the NDCC, the NDCP,
the OCD and the PAGASA. He
congratulated and thanked the local
Organizing Committee for the
excellent preparations that have
been put in place for the workshop.
Important historical facts about the
program were discussed, beginning
with the 1997-1998 El Nino event
(considered as the climate event of
the century) that led to the series
of international meetings where
action areas were identified to
address concerns and formulate
strategies for implementing the
program. The principal objectives of
the program and its 3 major
components were presented. The
general plan of action for component
no. 1, which is the subject of the
present workshop, was also
presented, and explained in detail.
top^
3.
Climate Forecasts and Applications -
by Dr. Aida M. Jose
The
formulation of seasonal and
inter-annual climate predictions,
which are based on ENSO dynamics,
was presented and discussed. It was
explained that the ENSO occurring in
the central equatorial Pacific
affects the climate of the
Philippines which, in turn, impact
on various sectors in the form of
floods, droughts, etc. Documenting
past ENSO events can be utilized in
deriving certain outputs that can be
useful to climate prediction. Global
climate forecasts produced by global
climate centers in the U.S.A., U.K.
Australia, etc., can be translated
into local climate forecasts, with
inputs from economic sectors.
Climate forecasts are produced as a
component of the Drought Early
Warming and Monitoring System (DEWMS)
being implemented through the PAGASA.
Examples of products generated under
the DEWMS, like advisories and
updates, were presented and
discussed. Inputs used in the
generation of DEWMS products
include, among others, indicators
and indices of rainfall for
assessing potential impacts,
excerpts of outputs from global
climate centers, global seas surface
temperature (SST) anomalies as basis
for seasonal climate forecasts. It
was noted that the latest
information on global SST anomalies
indicates the possible onset of
another El Nino episode after the
on-going La Nina.
top^
Open Forum
Following is a summary of
the question and answer
session that took place
immediately after the
technical presentations.
Q. In a recent update on
rainfall released by PAGASA,
abnormal rainfall is
predicted. How accurate is
this?
A. As mentioned in the
presentation made earlier,
there are indications of a
possible El Nino episode
after the on-going La Nina
based on the latest analysis
of global sea surface
temperatures. In such an
event, below normal rainfall
can be expected as in
previous El Nino episodes.
Q. Does the observed pattern
of rainfall similar to that
of previous El Nino warrant
preparations/ planning for a
new El Nino?
A. Yes. It is wise to plan
ahead since El Nino signals
in the Philippines are
strong. It was added (by Mr.
Ferraris) that based on the
latest global climate
models, there is a semblance
of El Nino occurring towards
the end of the year,
although still subject to
further observation and
verification. It is best to
be prepared even as there
still is a certain degree of
uncertainty.
|
top^
III. SECTORAL PRESENTATIONS ON
IMPACTS AND RESPONSES
1.
Agriculture
The
effects of El Nino on agriculture
were discussed. It was noted that
the impacts on agriculture were
generally negative, reflecting a 7%
decline in production during the
last El Nino episode. The Department
of Agriculture (DA) fully
appreciates the task at hand but,
unfortunately, it does not have the
necessary forecast models.
Information was presented on the
Disaster Response and Monitoring
System, which the DA has put in
place, with the two-pronged
objective of mitigation and
rehabilitation. At the core of the
system is the National Disaster
Response Center, also referred to as
the National Command Center (or just
plain Command Center for short),
which is mainly responsible for
coordinating disaster-related
activities of the DA nationwide.
Under the Command Center is the
Operations Control and Coordinating
Team tasked with undertaking surveys
and assessments of damages from
disasters. The team is composed of
the Field Operations Group of the
DA, the Bureau of Soils, and other
DA agencies. The Analysis Team,
composed of the MIS staff of the DA,
the Bureau of Agricultural
Statistics (BAS), etc., is in charge
of evaluating disaster threats and
their potential impacts.
The
National Command Center is
replicated at the regional level as
the Regional Command Center,
responsible for mobilizing DA
regional offices for preparedness
and mitigation measures at the
regional level. Agency Command
Centers are also in place to
coordinate with the national and
regional command centers.
Upon
advise from relevant agencies such
as the NDCC, command centers are
automatically activated at all
levels. During a calamity, the
entire system is placed in emergency
mode. It reverts to non-emergency
mode after the calamity.
Standardized reporting formats are
used by all field units of the DA
and the final validated reports are
due within 10 days.
top^
2.
Water Resources
The
impacts of extreme climate events
were presented and discussed.
Salient points of the presentation
are summarized below:
-
Significant extreme climate
events that impact on the water
resources sector are the El Nino
and La Nina phenomena. Of the
two, La Nina is the friendly
one.
-
In
Angat, minimum inflows were
recorded in 1997-98 because of
ENSO. From October 1997 to
August, inflows into the dam
were consistently below the
normal.
-
From the 4th Quarter of 1997 to
the 3rd Quarter of 1998, records
of water levels in the dam were
all below the Rule Curve
established by the National
Water Resources Board (NWRB) for
water reservoir elevation.
-
Ground water resources are
impacted by El Nino, resulting
in salt water intrusion.
-
Manganese concentrations in
water resources have
significantly increased.
-
Stream flows have also been
significantly affected.
Also
discussed were contingency measures
needed to combat or mitigate the
effects of El Nino, which include
the close watch of developments as
reported by PAGASA, close monitoring
of dams and reservoirs, exploration
of long term measures and
improvement of the operations of
local water systems.
With
regards to La Nina, its most
significant effect on the water
sector is the increased inflow, as
observed at the Angat Dam. The NWRB
has adopted two Rule Curves for dams
and reservoirs; namely, the Flood
Rule Curve, which is the maximum
allowable water elevation and the
Operation Rule Curve, which is the
minimum water level required at all
times. The use of the rule curves in
the operation of dams and reservoirs
were explained and discussed in
detail.
top^
3.
Health and Environment
Important facts about general trends
in health in the country were
discussed and can be summarized as
follows:
-
The double burden of illness
involving: (a) infectious
diseases for the young
population; and (b) lifestyle
diseases for the older
population.
-
Vulnerability to epidemics.
-
Endemic diseases that recur
regularly.
-
Emerging and re-emerging
infections,
Concerning the relationship between
climate and disease forecasting, it
was noted that there are no
available that correlate climate or
climate changes to disease patterns.
Disease forecasting is based on
historical trends and epidemiologic
studies. For the detection of
epidemics, the DOH maintains 76
sentinel sites nationwide for active
surveillance of diseases.
Contingency plans for health hazards
were discussed involving alert
systems in place, disaster response
teams, community preparedness,
disease surveillance and networking.
It was suggested that emergency
preparedness would be better served
through a multi-sectoral approach
even as it was noted that mitigation
activities depended much on
available resources.
top^
4.
Disaster Management
An
overview of the disaster management
system in the country was presented,
as implemented through the National
Disaster Coordinating Center (NDCC)
and the Office of Civil Defense (OCD),
outlining efforts to reinforce the
system and the lessons learned in
responding to extreme climate
events. Hazards and Disasters in the
country were discussed particularly
those that are climate-related. As
the most disaster-prone country in
the world, the Philippines suffered
from 7,401 disaster events in the
past 28 years, with total damage tp
property estimated at P196.979
billion.
As
presented, he Philippine Disaster
Management System is described as a
coordinative system among agencies
of government in handling disaster
situations and in responding to
specific emergencies. Institutional
arrangements involved and current
disaster preparedness initiatives
were presented and discussed in
detail.
top^
5.
Socio-Economic Impacts
In the
presentation given by the NEDA
representative, the need for
assessments based on empirical data
and information was stressed. The
following factors were identified as
important to consider in the
assessment of impacts:
Physical vulnerability
-
Coastal communities as most
vulnerable to storm surges.
-
Agriculture is most vulnerable
to typhoons, floods and drought.
Social vulnerability
-
Population density, means of
livelihood, etc.
-
Analysis limited to macro level.
Economic vulnerability
Also
discussed were the factors affecting
socio-economic analysis.
top^
IV.
IMPLEMENTATION PLANS BY SECTOR
-
Agriculture and Food Security
-
Water Resources
-
Environment and Health
-
Disaster Management
-
Climate Forecasts and Early
Warning
top^ |
