The book begins with a bang. On page 2 it tells us that major windstorms, defined as those causing damage greater than US$ 500 million, have increased sixfold since the 1960s. Average annual damage costs have soared from US$ 2.3 to 20.2 billion over the same period. Why?
The editors of this volume have drawn upon a distinguished cast of scientists in seeking answers to climate variability and the frequency of extreme weather events in different parts of the world. Their search ranges over climatic hazards in Australia, agricultural drought and flooding in Europe, tropical cyclones on the eastern US seaboard and in the southwest Pacific, windstorms, heat waves and the impact of sea level rise on developed coasts. The final three of the fourteen chapters provide an analysis of natural disasters, a review of weather insurance, and a strategy for policy-makers attempting to deal with the effects of extreme weather.
No rounded account of so complex a volume can be encapsulated in a brief review without risking ill-considered or superficial comments. But one can only be impressed by the daunting amount of investigative and factual data that has been assembled, sifted and evaluated. The serious effort to discover where the global climate is headed is accompanied by a realistic sense of caution. There are no attempts to gloss over the fragility of some of the evidence upon which the conclusions must be based. Indeed, one notes with some admiration the recurrence of phrases such as "highly uncertain" (p.35), "very speculative" (p.274), and "Although clouded with uncertainty" (p.353). Difficulties in running global climate models (GCMs) are pointed out in the Introduction where the lack of agreement between models for mid-latitude storms and tropical cyclones is commented upon.
The potential for more frequent or more intense tropical cyclones as a consequence of higher sea surface temperatures (SSTs) caused by global warming is a major concern treated in Chapters 7 and 9. Although present views suggest only a minor impact, no final conclusions can yet be drawn. The small island states of the southwest Pacific are particularly vulnerable to climate change through a combination of the incidence of tropical cyclones and sea level rise. These new risks demand new policy responses.
The analytical review of weather insurance in Chapter 13 presents a detailed explanation of the position of the commercial insurance sector's reaction to climate change. It is very clear that insurance against severe weather events is far from being either widespread or all-embracing. Whilst adaptation to climate change may to some extent be possible, the model used suggests that increases in risk are largely borne by the insured through price increases and cover restrictions.
If the book has limitations they are the ones imposed by our incomplete understanding of atmospheric processes in the near or distant future. It is a courageous attempt to assess the trends evident in severe weather events with their manifest consequences for mankind. It is vital that such assessments continue so that current perceptions of climate change can be adjusted to match improved knowledge. After all, the picture could look very different 50 years from now Ð or 20 for that matter.
-- Peter Rogers
Peter Rogers spent most of his professional career in the Secretariat of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) where, from 1967 until 1984, he was principally responsible for the WMO Tropical Cyclone Programme. He is now the Honorary Technical Adviser to the Technical Support Unit of the WMO/ESCAP Panel on Tropical Cyclones and is based in Bangkok. He is a friend of ADPC!
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