The existing early warning system in most countries is based on monitoring rainfall, water levels in reservoirs and the vegetation index, which can give a one-month lead time before harvest, to enable government institutions to implement contingency plans for food security in case of an impending drought. In case of floods, the lead time available is a couple of days to enable agencies to plan for emergency operations.

The advancements in climate science have now made it possible to indicate expected behavior of weather parameters such as rainfall, temperature and tropical cyclone occurrence in probabilistic terms with a considerable lead time. Climate forecasts can enable individual stakeholders and critical resource sector institutions to make appropriate adjustments to minimize negative consequences and capitalize on potential benefits of extreme climate events. These adjustments may include restructuring the cropping pattern, reorienting or modifying water resource management, and undertaking disaster preparedness and mitigation activities.

top^

The experiences of managing the consequences of the 1997�98 El Nino and 1998�1999 La Nina events have underlined the fact that the maximum benefits of the applications of forecast products cannot be realized without a thorough understanding of the human, social and economic systems within which climate forecasts will be applied. Clearly, there is a critical gap between the climate forecasts and their application for decision-making. There is a need for developing methods for impact pre-assessment (or consequence analysis) based on empirical analysis of past disaster events which would indicate the existing vulnerabilities on a geographical scale at which the counter-measures would be most effective. Physical climate variability and application of forecast products need to be integrated as a comprehensive climate forecasting and application system to take full advantage of the lead time for adopting effective disaster and resource management practices.

The direct application of global ENSO forecasts by decision makers without adequate understanding of their implications at the local level may sometimes lead to inappropriate policies and decisions as was evident during the 1997�98 El Nino and 1998�99 La Nina events.

The Philippine experience during the 1997�98 El Nino event shows that direct application of climate forecast without an adequate impact pre-assessment led to the initial declaration of 29 provinces as drought-affected, yet only six of these provinces actually experienced drought. An increased likelihood of below average rainfall was interpreted as leading to devastating drought but in reality, the monsoon paddy crop in some parts of the country performed even better due to the decreased number of tropical cyclones with optimum rainfall conducive for crop growth (Flor, 1998).

The Vietnam experiences during the 1997-98 El Nino and 1998�99 La Nina events show that there was inadequate appreciation of linkages between global ENSO parameters and local weather variables. For instance, a prolonged drought during 1997-98 caused a crop loss of as much as VND 5 trillion (US$ 385 million). Most of the intervention was centered on providing immediate relief to affected farmers, despite the fact that enough lead time was available to plan and undertake proactive measures (DMU, 1998).

In Indonesia, La Nina was perceived largely as a flood inducing agent, and excessive imports of rice were planned. However, the rice production during wet- season 1998-99 increased due to favorable weather provided by La NiÒa resulting in crash of paddy prices to the disadvantage of farmers (ADPC, 1998).

These experiences indicate that there is a need to better understand the linkages between regional climate forecasts, their implications for local weather parameters and specific local impacts on critical resource sectors.

top^

An effective integration between physical climate prediction and its application would require significant work in three distinct but inter-related areas - Physical Climate Prediction; Consequence Analysis or Impact "Pre-assessment"; and Institutional Response to Extreme Climate Events.

top^

Global ENSO parameters impact the strength of regional monsoon pattern in Southeast Asia. The behavior of monsoon in turn impinges on local weather variables such as typhoon incidence, rainfall distribution, temperature and humidity. These weather parameters influence the climate sensitive sectors like agriculture, water resources and public health. The direct application of global ENSO parameters into local decision-making poses serious difficulties. Policy planners and end users are not able to utilize the information like the sea surface temperature (SST) index and thermoclime depth in the tropical Pacific for making resource management decisions. Clearly, the local decision makers' specific interest is to know what are the specific impacts attributable to the precursor, growth and decay phases of ENSO on local weather variables such as onset and strength of southeast and northwest monsoons.

Hence, there is a need to downscale and desegregate the specific impact of ENSO parameters on monsoon patterns and the impact of monsoon patterns on local weather variables. There is a need to establish linkages of global, regional and local climate/weather variables and their impact on a given socio-economic system in a particular area. The disaggregation of ENSO associated potential impacts on temporal and spatial basis would provide better resolution to climate forecast products that will enable end users to undertake proactive response measures. The following specific issues need to be addressed:

• What is the suitability of current climate and weather forecast products for consequence analysis (impact pre-assessment) and decision-making in various user departments?

• What are the opportunities and constraints in producing and disseminating end user friendly climate forecast products?

• What are the opportunities for institutionalizing climate forecasts through greater involvement of experts form other disciplines such as agro-climatology, natural resource management, public health and water resource management?

top^

The existing methods used by different departments and agencies rely on monitoring of concurrent indicators during the course of the monsoon season like rainfall, crop condition, water level position in reservoirs, etc. This system gives a relatively small lead time to make resource management and disaster preparedness decisions. The ENSO climate forecasts now available can potentially provide information on possible onset of monsoon and its behavior during the entire season with enough lead time so as to facilitate the pre-assessment of the potential impacts on critical resource sectors. Few methods for such impact pre-assessment exist now and constitute a critical gap between climate forecasts and their application for decision making. In the wake of 1998�99 La Nina event, the Asian Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC) in collaboration with the National Disaster Management Coordination Board of Indonesia and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) took the initiative to undertake a rapid pre-assessment of the affects of La Nina on Indonesia.

The main focus was on the agriculture sector. This was a successful experience and indicated that documentation and empirical analysis of past sectoral impacts and their management experience in a given area can pave the way for establishing and institutionalizing consequence analysis or impact pre-assessment system in different sectors. The following specific issues need to be addressed:

• What kind of consequences can be anticipated (pre-assessed)? Natural disasters, floods, droughts, fires, reservoir levels, crop production, public health problems, etc.

• Where are the opportunities (within the existing institutional context) to establish systems for impact pre-assessment? What is the kind of interagency coordination required for doing this most effectively?

top^

The possibility of establishing an impact pre-assessment system enlarges the scope of better institutional responses to extreme climate events. However, there is a need to assess the status of the current institutional network to climate sensitive sectors such as agriculture, forestry, public health, water resources, etc. to institutionalize pre-assessment and proactive response efforts. The following specific issues need to be addressed:

• How, and to what extent, is probabilistic forecasting information used by resource managers in national, provincial and local governments?

• What are the kinds of risk management and/ or contingency plans adopted by various institutions to deal with forecasted extreme climate events (El Nino or La Nina) and their anticipated consequences?

• Does the increased use of probabilistic forecast information on weather variables and its pre-assessed potential impacts actually lead to decisions, which have superior outcomes from an overall societal perspective?

top^