PHASE I ECE Start-up Strategy Session
19-20 October 1998
Bangkok, Thailand
The
start-up strategy session to launch
the ECE Program was held at ADPC
from 19-20 October 1998. The session
was attended by delegations from the
program's three pilot target
countries, Indonesia, the
Philippines and Vietnam,
representatives from the ASEAN
Specialized Meteorological Center (ASMC),
La Red (a Latin American network of
NGOs, individuals and organizations
working on disaster prevention),
ADPC, USAID, NOAA, and the U.S.
Department of State.
The
key objective of the start-up
strategy session was to share the
preliminary design of the current
program on extreme climate events,
brainstorm on its different
components and obtain strategic
guidance from the key stakeholders.
The
start-up strategy session was geared
towards generating the following
outputs:
An
indicative implementation plan
for the program that identifies:
the key issues that the
program should address;
appropriate institutional
contacts (in different
sectors) for information
gathering and dissemination;
and
appropriate time frame for
various activities.
Preliminary identification of
potential partners for Component
I (documentation process) in the
three study countries.
The
two-day Strategy Session was
structured around nine sessions and
dealt in detail with the three
proposed components of the program
and an implementation strategy for
each one of them. The outcomes of
the deliberations are summarized in
the following sections:
Experts from the meteorological
agencies of the program's three
pilot target countries, Indonesia,
the Philippines and Vietnam reviewed
the development of climate
prediction capabilities, their
current status and applications in
their countries. It was observed
that the three countries present
unique cases in terms of the level
of climate forecasting capabilities,
their applications and inter-agency
coordination at the national level.
The discussions were focused on
identifying the issues that the ECE
program should address. It was
recognized that the Philippines
CLIMPS program had identified in
detail the requirements at national
level for the assessment of impacts
of climate variability. This listing
(Box 1) presents a useful initial
framework for the ECE program for
looking at the climate prediction
capabilities at the national level
Representatives from ASMC and NOAA
presented a brief overview of their
recent work towards production of
climate forecast guidance for the
region. The NOAA representatives
presented the most recent climate
forecast products produced by the
International Research Institute (IRI).
The need for greater regional and
international cooperation in
developing a regional capability to
produce regional climate forecast
guidance was emphasized.
The
meeting identified the following
specific issues that need to be
addressed in order to facilitate
regional forecast production:
recovery and digitization of
historical climate data
exchange of historical data
exchange and analysis of
real-time data
development of regional forecast
methods
links to applications for user
feedback
climate scientist collaboration
at regional/ international level
Following were identified as the key
regional support functions:
climate database exchange
expansion of database beyond
what goes into GTS to produce
higher resolution product
Resources
Willingness
exchange/ compilation of
national forecasts
real-time data exchange
MetSat data from ESCAP and
national sources
climate forecast models run by
and developed by ASMC
interpretation of forecasts for
decision-making
The
three key areas of cooperation
identified included: regional model
development; data exchange; and
exploring linkages (and hence
feedback mechanisms) with the
national decision making processes.
The ASMC in collaboration with IRI
would be willing to take the lead in
the development and running of a
regional climate-forecasting model.
The pre-requisites for replication
of a forecast model in the Southeast
Asian context would be financial
resources; information, training and
human resources; and accessibility
of data inputs. Further improvements
of regional climate model outputs
will depend on improved
understanding of the physical
processes underlying variability in
the region and the increased
availability of good data sets.
The
meeting agreed that an appropriate
strategy for developing regional
capability for climate forecasting
applications would be to start with
the ECE program study countries.
Residency programs at ASMC for
national scientists from the
participating countries could be
started to strengthen the linkages
between regional and national level
efforts. Such program would require
institutional commitment from the
national agencies. WMO could be
explored as one possible source of
financing such arrangements. It was
recognized that a regional climate
forecasting system should:
take into account required
timing of forecast outputs for
individual countries;
be
based on forecasting models that
take into account factors
affecting the regional climate;
and
select appropriate models in
generating forecasts to ensure
highest seasonal skill.
Detailed discussions were held on
issues related to translating
climate forecast guidance into
applications. In the context of the
ECE program, the strategy-session
concluded that:
The applications aspect of the
ECE program should have a
national level focus.
Users and their actual
information needs should be
clearly identified in each
country
Historical and real-time hazard
data and effects data should be
collected. DesInventar system
developed and implemented by LA
RED in Latin America was
recognized as an appropriate
tool in this process (refer to
Box 2).
The collection and analysis of
the above mentioned data will
help in the calibration of
climate extremes.
The above mentioned steps will
enable "hindcasting" of hazard
conditions based on disaster
data.
Detailed discussions were held on
the applications aspects of the
program. The meeting recognized the
need for educating the policy makers
at the highest level on the
possibilities offered by
applications of climate forecasts.
The need for public education and
community training in high-risk
areas was also highlighted. In the
context of the ECE program, the
meeting validated the preliminary
implementation plan presented by
ADPC:
The main follow-up activity
immediately after the strategy
session will be a 2-day start-up
workshop in the study countries.
These workshops will help
finalize the scope of the
program in each study country.
Institutional contacts and
inter-agency relationships in
each of the study countries will
be identified. A preliminary
listing of important ministries
and departments was prepared for
each of the three study
countries (please see Box 3).
Workshops for interface between
end-users and climate
forecasting community.
It
is envisaged that the program
will help develop methods for
impact assessment (consequence
analysis) using climate
forecasts. These methods should
then be imparted with a wide
range of end users.
Exchange between the study
countries of lessons learned
through national level
workshops.
The
meeting identified the following
issues for the media component of
the ECE program:
How to disseminate climate
information in the most
effective way, i.e. how should
the forecast be phrased for the
media.
More proactive media strategy is
required not only as a vehicle
of communication but also as an
important self-defense for the
forecasting community.
There is need to identify media
contacts with ongoing interest
in climate variability and
related issues. Media focal
point in each of the study
countries press bureaus in the
government as well as the
private sector.
The analytical results from
DesInventar can be provided to
the media.
The media should be provided
with a complete picture i.e. not
only the forecast of the climate
but also of the consequences.
As
a follow-on to the start-up strategy
session, start-up workshops will be
held in each of the study countries.
Within their institutional
limitations the country delegations
agreed to facilitate the process in
their respective countries. In the
Philippines, a start-up workshop was
tentatively proposed in the last
week of November or the first week
of December under the leadership of
Department of Agriculture. In
Vietnam, the start-up workshop may
be scheduled in January. In
Indonesia, discussions will have to
be held with BAKORNAS PB for the
organization of a start-up workshop.
