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This article was written by Rajendra Desai in August 2000 - five months before the great Gujarat earthquake. Rajendra argued for launching earthquake safety programs in the state of Gujarat. At that time, we did not consider this article "Topical" enough for inclusion in our previous issue, but now it seems almost prophetic. It points to the challenge that disaster managers face in launching mitigation programs before disaster strikes. -Editor's Note The 1998 Kandla cyclone brought home the message to the people of Gujarat state that they are not immune to devastating natural disasters, and showed how ill-prepared the state is to face them. Recent mild earthquake tremors in Saurashtra are yet another reminder that the state should prepare to face such disasters in the future. The UN International Decade of Natural Disaster Reduction brought the issue of disaster preparedness into the limelight around the world. Natural disasters in India and elsewhere have taught a number of lessons about preparations to reduce their impact. It is imperative that some of these lessons are put into action without delay in Gujarat. Seismic Activity in Peninsular India Peninsular India was considered seismically dormant for a long time. Until the 1967 Koyna earthquake that shook the western seaboard of India, it was difficult to imagine an earthquake in this part of the country. Even at that time, no one ever expected a disaster on the scale of the 1993 Latur earthquake within a short span of 26 years. This was followed by another moderate earthquake in 1997 in Jabalpur that clearly demonstrated seismic activity in the Narmada Valley. In Gujarat, Kutchh saw major earthquakes twice in the past century. Reports also mention moderate earthquakes in Bhawnagar in the early 1900s and in Bharuch in 1970. The possibility of an earthquake, including its severity and frequency, is assessed based on an area's quake history. This is indicated on the country's Seismic Zonation Map in the National Building Code of India prepared by the Bureau of Indian Standards. There are five zones ranging from I to V. In Zone I the possibility of a moderate intensity is negligible. In Zone V the possibility of a strong earthquake in the foreseeable future is high. Kutchh, Kashmir, Uttarakhand and northeast India are all in Zone V. Much of Gujarat lies in Zone III, which has some possibility of a moderate earthquake in the foreseeable future. The recent spurt of seismic activity may indicate that the stress level is building up to such a point that its release has begun. A study of the Latur area's history reveals that some 500 years ago a devastating earthquake struck. One conjecture from this is that the area's earthquake frequency is approximately 500 years. Repeated occurrences of mild tremors are often precursors to a larger earthquake; tremors measuring up to 4 on the Richter Scale had occurred throughout the year preceding the 1993 Latur quake. Disaster Preparedness In the Latur earthquake, some 9,000 lives were lost and more than 35,000 houses destroyed. In Uttarkshi, Jabalpur and Chomoli, the impact was significantly less. Immediately following these calamities, in-depth studies were sponsored by the Building Materials Production and Technology Council (BMPTC) under the Ministry of Urban Affairs and Employment. The studies entailed rapid assessment of the damage and the formulation of corrective measures. They also showed that the cause of death and destruction was that houses were simply not made to withstand the forces generated by such earthquakes; people were unaware of the danger from earthquakes since they had not occurred in a long time. The studies also recommended ways to build stronger houses out of the same materials that people had always used. For the millions of existing houses in these quake-prone areas, ways were prescribed to retrofit or strengthen houses without dismantling them, all in adherence with the Codes of Practice prepared by the Bureau of Indian Standards and accepted by the International Association for Earthquake Engineering. Since the Latur earthquake, a team of engineers and social workers headed by Rajendra Desai and Rupal Desai, an architect from Ahmedabad Study Action Group (ASAG), has undertaken an awareness campaign to educate people about earthquake safety. They have also trained local masons through work on nearly 200 houses in three quake-affected districts of Maharashtra, carried out jointly with residents who contributed money and labor. In Latur and Garhwal, the ASAG team has conducted awareness and confidence-building campaigns to eradicate myths about earthquakes and safety, and to teach people about their options. It is time that such programs were started in Gujarat so that unwarranted miseries and huge economic losses can be prevented. It is crucial that people become better prepared, since only they can save themselves. Rajendra Desai has 12 years of professional experience in California and seven years of experience with the development and dissemination of appropriate technologies for earthquake safety in Latur and Garhwal regions. The Gujarat Earthquake The Event On 26 January 2001 at approximately 8:46 a.m. local time, as Indians were starting to celebrate the nation's 52nd Republic Day, an earthquake of estimated magnitude 7.71 on the Richter Scale rocked the westernmost state of Gujarat. The epicenter was located northwest of Bhuj town, the headquarters of Kachchh district. The duration of the event reported by most sources was 18-21 seconds. The earthquake was a shallow focus event with the hypocenter estimated variously at about 10-24 km below the earthÕs surface. Impact Gujarat is divided into three seismic zones: Zone V (high damage area, most of Kachchh), Zone IV (areas along the Kachchh bay) and Zone III (rest of the state). Gujarat has a population of about 50 million with a majority of about 66% in rural areas. The earthquake devastated much of the Kachchh peninsula (population 1.8 million), and caused widespread destruction to the central and western parts of Gujarat, where about 20 million people live. Ninety percent of the total deaths and 85% of the total asset losses were reported from Kachchh (Center for Monitoring the Indian Economy, 2001). The social fabric of the affected areas was completely paralyzed due to 20,000 human deaths and 167,000 injury cases. Families were shattered by the death or serious disability of earning members, resulting in long-term impact on family well-being, particularly in more vulnerable groups. The World Bank-ADB March 2001 earthquake assessment estimated private asset losses at $1.6 billion and public losses at $0.5 billion. The earthquake affected telephone lines and optical fibre systems, disrupted electricity stations, and damaged water distribution networks and highways. The destruction of the building stock left debris and rubble estimated at 25-50 million metric tons. Existing aquifers and groundwater were also disturbed. Damage to several industrial facilities was also reported, though with no catastrophic incidents. Building Damage According to the 1991 census, there were over 10.31 million buildings in Gujarat, of which 9.1 million were residential, 1.1 commercial and the remaining public and institutional. According to initial Government of Gujarat estimates, about 400,000 rural dwellings were devastated and 800,000 suffered partial damage, while 120,000 urban dwellings were affected. Preliminary field-based observations indicated a maximum intensity of IX on the twelve-point MSK scale. The extent of building damage was primarily governed by a) distance from the epicenter, b) building quality, c) local geological conditions and d) building density. Many well-constructed buildings about 0-20 km from the epicenter catchment suffered damage of partial to total collapse (intensity IX). Located close to the epicenter, Kakarwa, Manfera and Chobari villages suffered maximum building damage. Bhachau, the town closest to the epicenter, suffered 80-85% partial or total damage. Building construction quality was the most important factor governing earthquake vulnerability. Most buildings in rural areas are traditional and constructed from local materials like stone, mud and timber. These predominant structures offer almost no resistance to ground shaking. Random rubble stone walls with mud mortar or weakly-bonded cement mortar suffered maximum damage. In Kachchh district, many buildings constructed of large block masonry bonded with mud or low-strength cement mortar not only made them more vulnerable to damage, but the weight of the blocks increased human casualties. In multi-storied buildings damage was observed typically in 3-4 storied RCC structures with no infill walls on the ground floor. Other damaged multistoried buildings had either a heavy roof structure (like overhead tank or swimming pool) or a weak connection with the staircase or elevator. Local geological and ground conditions influenced the intensity of building damage. Among buildings with the same construction quality in the same town, some were damaged while others were not. Settlement density and character also had an impact on damage intensity and casualties. Buildings in old Anjar and Bhuj town suffered severe damage owing to old age and high building density, causing a pounding impact that triggered the collapse of adjacent buildings, while new areas of the town suffered little damage. Despite the vast devastation, there were success stories of withstanding the earthquakeÕs impact. Some village buildings located close to the epicenter and built consciously by local masons or contractors, considering basic structural design components, did not suffer any damage. Most high-rise buildings were not damaged, nor were most with complete infills in the ground storey. Vernacular building systems withstood the impact of the disaster in most areas. Future Directions The possibility of a strong earthquake in Gujarat was never considered seriously by the government, builders, engineers and general public. Thus there was little earthquake preparedness, although preparedness plans for cyclones, floods and drought existed and were being implemented. Anomalies in construction practices and the absence of self-regulation and ethics made buildings more vulnerable to earthquakes. The post-earthquake scenario saw rapid awareness across society about the importance of seismic considerations in construction and making building codes mandatory. This will not only require building the capacity of implementing institutions and enforcing stringent laws in construction practices, but also consideration of people's affordability to incorporate seismic codes in their buildings. Thus, a participatory comprehensive approach addressing structural, legal, financial and social issues needs to be undertaken to make buildings safer. Aman Mehtais an urban planner currently working as a Senior Research Associate at the Urban Management Center (UMC) based at the Asian Institute of Technology. Over the last four years his work has focused on urban development issues in Asia. Key Considerations for a Reconstruction Planning Framework The articles on pages 4 and 5 are based on the technical advice given by ADPC staff to the Gujarat Government in early February 2001. The Program for Enhancement of Emergency Response (PEER), Program Manager Lolita Garcia visited Bhuj, Anjar and Bachua and assessed the damage and state of Medical First Response, and Search and Rescue. The Planning, Development and Partner Relations (PDPR) Director Aloysius Rego, AUDMP Program Manager Josh Moga and Jinx Parker, Earthquake Specialist were fielded by the Asian Development Bank from 31 January 2001 to 10 February 2001 to provide technical input to the Gujarat Government in its planning for the Reconstruction Program. From 12-19 February, they were members of the joint World Bank-ADB Mission. There is a massive humanitarian assistance effort underway following the Gujarat earthquake, with the governments of Gujarat state and India moving swiftly to respond and focusing on a return to normalcy. Planning for long-term reconstrution should begin immediately to smooth the transition from emergency to rebuilding, and to include vulnerability reduction measures now to reduce costs and make the most effective use of reconstruction monies flowing into the stricken region. This article outlines some considerations for preparations of an earthquake reconstruction planning framework. Service Infrastructure Failure of power, water and telecommunications systems has had a considerable negative effect on the ability of national, state and local officials and organizations to manage the emergency. The cost to businesses and industries is not yet fully known. It is important not only to assess and repair the systems, but also to upgrade them for future protection. A detailed technical study and analysis should elaborate strategies for reducing risk, particularly to avoid cascading failures. A full assessment marrying structural engineering analysis with critical infrastructure protection expertise will provide the best information currently available in the vital and expensive area of long-term capital investment. Income Generation Business and commercial activities rely on urban services. The most immediate need is generally to reestablish support systems including the workforce, transport, power, water and telecommunications. Support and assistance to small businesses and local artisans is critical during the emergency period as they do not have a savings cushion or other resources to retain their clientele and markets until they can recover. In urban areas, structural assessments should be conducted to certify buildings as usable so that businesses can reopen. Power, water and telecommunications service interruptions should be minimized during the repair period. Support should be considered for a jobs information center to assist in matching the jobless with work opportunities. Income-generation projects should also be supported in the affected areas. Approval of loan funds for disaster-affected businesses should be speeded up. In rural areas, restoration of power, water and telephone service should be ensured. The need for temporary business sites should be assessed, as should the status of agriculture and the long-term damage to salt harvesting. NGOs and local community groups should be supported to organize livelihood activities. Housing Housing is a particularly difficult sector as the damage has been so extensive in many towns and village Short-term issues to be addressed include: Temporary shelter for those who have lost homes Out-migration to other urban areas Protection of belongings Structural assessments of damaged buildings How and where to restart income-generating activities for home businesses I n high-risk areas, joint community-government decision-making about relocating towns and villages Salvage of building materials and debris removal, and Reconnection of utilities. Medium-term housing issues involve: Land tenure and ownership Financial and material resources for rebuilding Timing, with the rainy season imminent Access to information and experience in improved construction, and Inclusion of building standards for seismic areas in all construction types and mortgage loan documen- tation. Housing issues in the long term include: Upgrading of building codes and preparation of building standards for specific areas Training on standards for local craftsmen and self-builders, contractors, engineers and architects Training and required resources for inspection and enforcement, and Review and upgrading of construction materials standards and quality control. Local initiatives to rebuild should be supported. Town and village reconstruction committees should include families in planning and construction decisions. The cost of tools and construction materials should be subsidized. Training and public awareness activities should be conducted for builders and local artisans throughout the state. Schools Schools should return to functioning as soon as possible. They can serve as community anchors, returning displaced people to their villages, providing activities for children and reassuring people that life is returning to normal. Where school buildings have been damaged, classes can be held in temporary structures, outside locations or community buildings. Structural assessments should be conducted and repairs performed before reopening damaged schools to reassure parents of their safety. More heavily damaged schools should not reopen until repair and retrofitting are complete. Earthquake resistant construction techniques should be incorporated into all new school construction. Teachers should make time for children to talk about their experience in the earthquake and its aftermath. Great psychological benefit can be derived from involvement in school and community activities. Community organizations can arrange for speakers to answer questions. Tourism The tourism-related workforce, transport and other n. services should be returned to normal functioning. Structural assessment and appropriate repair to hotels, guesthouses and sites of historic interest should be facilitated. The restoration of services should be communicated positively through the media. Detailed studies of retrofitting and other protection options specific to cultural monuments and historic sites should be conducted. Housing Reconstruction Building collapse, Ahmedabad    Relocation Recognize community preferences for in-situ reconstruction Base relocation decisions on analyses which determine that risk will be reduced Make decisions through community consultation Reconstruction of destroyed villages and cities Take opportunities for improved planning Keep traditional settlement patterns in mind Repair, strengthening and retrofitting Facilitate households to repair or retrofit their own units Encourage involvement of local artisans Technology and design Base designs on local housing layout patterns Promote rainwater harvesting in retrofitted buildings Use climatically appropriate designs Delivery system Recognize that rebuilding can commence early and reinforce local initiative Train local craftspersons in techniques using local materials to ensure incorporation of seismic safety principles in future construction Management Build on private sector offers and community initiative Use local contractors Guidelines for adoption Define cost ceilings of reconstructed settlements Require use of locally appropriate construction practices Require education of communities and local artisans Innovative financial arrangements Arrange low interest loans, longer repayment and initial grace periods Provide subsidies for building materials to limit price gauging Women and female-headed households Take opportunities for joint ownership of newly constructed houses Planning Plan settlements according to traditional requirements Encourage public participation in determining locations of common spaces and buildings Realize the need for uniform policy, revised building codes and structural standards Technical support for reconstruction programs Ensure that technical support is multidisciplinary, including architects and planners, structural engineers, social scientists (development, gender and community participation specialists) and communications specialists Public awareness and participation Start public awareness and participation programs in the early stages of reconstruction Demystify seismic structural safety so that people can incorporate appropriate features during repair and subsequent construction