PROJECT BACKGROUND

Early warning is a key element of disaster risk reduction. National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NHMSs) are mandated to observe, assess, and predict weather and climate, and provide fore-cast services for societal welfare. All the advances in research in generating hazard risk information is not incorporated into operational forecast system and not all operational forecasts are integrated into decision making process to reduce disaster risks . In order to address these gaps, the Asian Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC) is collaborating with Regional Integrated Early Warning System for Africa and Asia (RIMES) through pilot demonstration projects. These pilot demonstration projects are deigned to generate, deliver and apply of location specific user need based weather and climate fore-cast products of different time scales for reducing disaster risks in vulnerable sectors.

This demonstration project is being implemented in Bangladesh, China and Vietnam in high risk low elevation coastal areas with support of the Government of Norway from September 2009 to December 2011.

Brochure  

PROJECT OBJECTIVES
This project aims to strengthen institutional systems for end-to-end early warning of natural hazards by:

1. Establishing multi-stakeholder forums for early warning to institutionalize a dialogue process to understand user needs and generate user salient forecast information
2. Developing user-relevant tools to build capacity of user insti-tutions to interpret and translate and communicate science based risk information into user friendly early warning in-formation products .
3. Enhancing institutional capacities for the application of warn-ing information products for decision-making at risk com-munities to respond to potential hazards.
   
   The good practices and experience gained from the project will be shared and replicated in the region through the RIMES.

PROPOSED METHODOLOGY

Bangladesh
It is proposed to identify a coastal pilot site prone to hydro-meteorological hazards like cyclones, storm surge, heavy rainfall, thun-derstorms etc. The project would focus on the post monsoon cyclones (October- November). Preliminary vulnerability analysis in the pilot sites using past disaster information supported by perception, experience and knowledge of ar risk communities will be tapped to define risk thre-shold for specific hazards. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)- a numerical weather prediction model will be customized to generate location specific early warning information which in conjunction with pre-defined risk thresholds for use by different stakeholders. Dur-ing the course of project implementation, integration of meteorological observations from BMD and other sources into the WRF system will be undertaken to further improve high resolution weather forecasts. The Disaster Management, Department of Agriculture, NGO and Civili so-ciety organizations will be involved to reach forecast information to at risk communities and receive feedback from them.

China
A coastal pilot site prone to multiple-hazards will be identified in colla-boration with CMA. Vulnerability analysis and identification of thre-sholds for the hazards at a pilot site would be the first steps. These thresholds integrated with the state-of-the-art meso-scale model and the CMA’s global/regional model would lead to high resolution weather forecast products customized for the pilot site, for the use of various stake holders. These activities would be carried out in close collabora-tion between CMA Scientists and RIMES Scientists. . Integration of me-teorological observations would also lead to further improvements in the high resolution forecast generation. The provincial county and community level institutions will be involved to reach location specific risk information and receive feedback from at risk communities.

Vietnam
A coastal site prone to multiple hazards would be identified under the project with particular focus on reducing impacts due to one major ha-zard. Thresholds identified after vulnerability analysis would be inte-grated withoutputs from the state-of-the-art meso-scale models and Vietnam’s existing weather forecast model for a high resolution weather forecast customized for the pilot site. The project would facilitate use of this early warning information by various stakeholders, in close colla-boration with NHMS scientists. The model outputs would be further improved by integrating meteorological observations. The district people’s committee, commune people’s, village committee and other relevant stakeholders will be involved to reach location specific risk in-formation and receive feedback from at risk communities.